Well, Turkey says NATO defenses have shot down a second ballistic missile fired from Iran. Fragments of the weapon fell near a construction site in the south. No injuries or damage have been reported. NATO has confirmed the incident and said it’s ready to defend member states against any threat. Turkey has been mostly unaffected by Iranian strikes despite US troops being stationed at several of its bases.
Our correspondent Dorian Jones is following this story for us and joins us now from Turkey. Dorian, Turkey’s clearly angry about these incidents. It has warned that it will respond to all threats. So what can we expect Ankara to do next?
Well, you’re absolutely right. In a Turkish ministry statement, they said all means will be used decisively to protect Turkish territory. Now, Turkey does have NATO’s second largest army. It has a large air force as well as major drone forces as well. But having said that, Ankara will be wary of wanting to get embroiled in any military conflict with Iran. It has since the onset of the conflict has been determined to avoid any involvement in the conflict. It is aware that its financial markets are already under a great deal of pressure with a $100 plus a barrel of oil, stoking fears of a potential currency crisis. If Turkey was to militarily get involved in Iran, that will put further pressure. But the key factor in Ankara’s decision-making process will be, is this missile strike, the second in less than a week from Iran, part of a new strategy from Tehran targeting Turkey? That will be a decisive factor in what Ankara will do next. For now, at least, expect it to ramp up diplomatic pressure on Tehran to end these missile strikes.
Iran denies wanting to attack Turkey, Dorian. Is it plausible that a ballistic missile perhaps meant for a British military base on Cyprus could enter Turkish airspace by mistake twice?
Well, that is a possibility, although I think the major consideration here is that it possibly that these two missile strikes were carried out by local commanders in Iran. Ever since the Israeli-American air assaults on Iran, which saw the decapitation of many of the leaders of the Iranian military, Iran has adopted what it calls the mosaic defense doctrine, which sees a major decentralization of command and control to local commanders on the ground.
And the fact that we’ve only seen single missile strikes aimed at Turkey, which both were around 200 kilometers from a very important Turkish military air base called Incirlik, where there is a large American air presence, suggests that this could be the actions of individual commanders. Because it’s widely considered that if Tehran was to target Incirlik, they would have to use a sustained barrage of missiles and possibly drones like it has done on its Arab neighbors to have any chance of getting past these considerable air defense systems that protect that air base. So for now, at least, I think Ankara is looking in the perspective that this is individual commanders, but the message is expected to be to Tehran, they have to end this now.
We’ve seen this war, Dorian, already engulf so many countries in the region. Uh, there is a great deal of concern about Turkey because Turkey, of course, is a NATO member state. Could NATO end up being drawn into this war, Dorian?
Well, indeed. I mean, uh, under the NATO charter, Turkey could invoke Article 5, which is an attack on one member is an attack on all, and that would bring the prospect of expecting NATO to come forward and defend Turkey.
Now, Turkey, I think, will be very wary of invoking that. It’s very keen to stay out of this conflict. It doesn’t even allow American air force planes to use Turkish airspace to carry out attacks on Iran, and it would be very wary of NATO forces being using Turkey as a platform to attack Iran. That is considered a major step by Ankara, and it’s seemed very unlikely. Possibly it could invoke Article 4, where it could call for all the NATO leaders to come together to discuss what measure they could take to help Turkey. Possibly Ankara would look for the deployment of America’s Patriot missile systems to defend Turkish territory. But Ankara is very wary of getting NATO involved in using Turkish territory to carry out a war against Iran. That is considered a major step by Ankara, and it’s seemed very unlikely.
There are good reasons to be wary, it would seem. Uh, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says he wants to keep his country out of the war. But Dorian, if more rockets are fired at Turkey, if Turkey finds itself under attack, that could change, couldn’t it?
Well, undoubtedly, if these missiles continue to strike Turkey, if larger numbers of them start targeting Turkey, and Turkey also hosts a very important NATO radar base in Kurecik, which is operated by American forces and is a window into Iran, uh, used by the American forces, uh, that could possibly be an also could be a target. Then there will be pressure on Turkey to do more.
Uh, the Turkish president has put a big, big premium on seeking a diplomatic solution to this conflict. In the run-up to the conflict, here in Istanbul, they hosted a meeting with the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Sarachi, and Turkey was, in fact, Turkey criticized Iran for sidelighting, sidelining Turkish efforts in favor of a meeting in Oman, uh, to avoid this confrontation. In fact, Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan said much of the blame is at Iran’s doorstep because they didn’t take Turkish efforts seriously. But President Erdogan is stepping up his diplomatic efforts to find a diplomatic solution. He’s speaking to regional leaders constantly, and he does have the ear of the American President Donald Trump. Whether that would be enough at some point to end this conflict, it remains unclear, but the message from Ankara is, they need a diplomatic solution to this conflict, not a further escalation of the war.
Dorian, thank you very much. Our correspondent Dorian Jones there in Istanbul.